Yankees vs. Odds Brave
Monday, August 14
7:20 p.m. ET
-120 / -102
-120 / -102
After consecutive losses in Miami Now that the Yankees have just a 6.2% chance of clinching a playoff spot, per FanGraphs, they’ll look back as the underdogs on Monday. Against the league-leading Braves, with Clark Schmidt (4.23 ERA, 115 IP) vs. Max Fried (2.50 ERA, 36 IP).
Schmidt’s second half was a rare positive for the Yankees in a year that offered little else to cheer fans.
Schmidt has pitched for an ERA of 3.67 in 27 innings since the All-Star Break, with a stellar WHIP of 0.96. Model pitching is relatively high at Schmidt’s job this season. He owns 103 Stuff+ with 105 Location+.
The New York Bullies are also holding strong. Over the past 30 days, it has held the third highest xFIP level of 3.80, with an ERA of 3.98.
The Yankees’ offensive game was also stable. Against the rest of the season, especially with Aaron Judge back in the starting lineup, over the last 30 days they have scored a wRC+ of 100. Their 0.48 BB/K ratio shows. that their process improved Including a violent attack rate of 36.8%, which ranks fifth in that time frame.
A 60-58 record this season feels like a disaster for the Yans. But it’s important to remember that they play in the AL East Division with five teams over .500 rating considering this team’s strength.
Max Fried offered a question mark in his second start in the rotation against Pittsburgh, earning four catches in four innings. His stuff got a slightly worse rating than last season, scoring 95 Stuff+ and 99 Location+.
His 2.04 xERA is very impressive, as is his 2.88 xFIP considering where his stuff ranks. It seems unlikely that he will split points any better than what we saw last year in the larger innings preview.
The Braves continue to put up incredible numbers. Over the past 30 days, they’ve racked up 136 wRC+ records, with the highest hard-hit ratio in the entire league.
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Yankee and the Brave
Betting selection and prediction
This matchup is a great time to buy low on Schmidt and sell high on Fried with the Yankees at +195 to win.
Schmidt made a solid performance lately. And it seems to be starting to reward his high-quality arsenal with fewer runs. Freed is on the other end of the spectrum. And he hasn’t proved himself since coming back two starts ago.
In addition to last night’s disaster New York’s dummy remains one of baseball’s best recently. That strength can help them keep this match even as an underdog. Or close if Schmidt can take the lead.
The Braves are resting late after taking on the Mets at Citi Field on baseball Sunday night. While the Yankees played during the afternoon in Miami.
There’s also the chance that Atlanta will eventually drop some key pieces (on top of Albies), and it’s likely that the Yanks will gain a bit more value once their lineup is released.
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