Odds for Angels vs Astros
Saturday August 12
7:15 p.m. ET
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
Los Angeles will find a way to turn around from a 11-3 streak of Game 2 against Houston on Saturday. The Angels are now down eight of their last 10 games and own just 1.5% of the total. Claims of travel berths per FanGraphs.
They will turn to Tyler Anderson (4.92 ERA, 104 IP) Saturday looking to close out a Houston lineup that has been on fire since the return of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez to the starting lineup.
The Astros will start JP France, who owns a 2.75 ERA in 95 innings.
Tyler Anderson enters this tournament with an xERA of 4.78 this season with a K-rate of just 18% and an xBA of .264.
His xFIP was 5.40 entering this tournament. But it has trended closer to 5.20. Over the past five years, he has a Stuff+ rating of 90 this season, with a Location+ rating of 100.
in the past two matches Anderson has increased his replacement use to 39%, which makes sense considering his changes have an xSLG rate of .377 compared to fastball, which owns an xSLG of .502 this season.
Opponents have a hard hit rate of 23% compared to his substitutions. And he threw 38% of the time with two strikeouts last season.
Houston’s seasoned lineup has proven to be as adaptable as it can be. with anyone who has played baseball in the past several seasons. And that strength might have something to do with Anderson. The Saturday Astros met Anderson on July 16 and scored just one run over three innings. despite managing five hits and two walks.
The Astros rated the pitch as positive compared to the four-head shifter and cutter respectively. Those three pitches round up Anderson’s arsenal, which should benefit the Astros.
Notably, the Astros are the fourth most viable team in the league against left-handed pitching this season. They have a wRC+ rating of 118 on 1224 PA against wingers.
Kyle Tucker’s .580 SLG rate and .981 OPS against lefties were the keys to that success. He also has a .639 SLG rate since the All-Star break and is 5-for-6 against Anderson in the past. He has 67% of his fastballs from left-handed throws.
He’s had success at at-bats against runners on base this season with an OPS of .968, which is crucial to the Astros’ success with the talent constantly in front of him. and led to the second-best AL RBI total of 84.
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Angels vs. Astros
Betting selection and prediction
Houston’s top ranks have been a matchup nightmare for Anderson, who has received a lot of contacts this season. Altuve, Alvarez and Tucker have all tried to lure targets to do some damage in this matchup.
Tucker is my favorite pick because his price is 10 cents better than Altouf or Alvarez, and he’s probably the hitter most likely to see some pitches in this zone. The difference between him and his left-hand pitching is striking. And he’s been in great form since the All-Star break.
My favorite bet from this matchup is Tucker to save over 1.5 base and anything better than +100 is playing for me.
Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Base +105
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