Odds for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Newcastle and Aston Villa kick off the season with an important match at St. James Park.
The Magpies had a historic season under Eddie Howe, they finished fourth and returned to the Champions League for the first time in 20 years. It’s been a tough start to the season, so it’s important for them to get the three points here with a trip to Manchester City ahead.
Aston Villa took a complete turn last season when Unai Emery took over the throne. He led them to a seventh-place finish and a place in the Europa Conference League. Aston Villa added to the squad in the summer. and hopes once again to challenge for a place in the top six.
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The Newcastle transfer market is low, but they (without a doubt in my mind) were the third-best team in the Premier League last season, finishing with +0.85 xGD per 90 minutes. It’s the second-best score in the Premier League. Yes, that’s better than Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool.
Newcastle certainly bully teams that try to play from the back. at the end of last season They did that with both Arsenal and Brighton. Premier League Top Five Teams in PPDA and Opponents Complete Percentage
It’s not just Newcastle that can bully a team that likes to play from the back. But when the teams forced to play long ball Newcastle will make a dramatic change in the competition. Newcastle are the best transitional team in the Premier League and rank in the top three in conversion rate into the final box.
Alexander Isak has changed Newcastle’s attack. He is a flawless striker who can receive and finish from almost any angle. He gives Newcastle a lot of versatility and also creates space for other attackers.
to improve Newcastle went out on the market and got Sandro Tonali, a young midfielder who played very well as a No.8 in transitional defence. And would be perfect to partner with Bruno Guimaraes.
They also went out and got Harvey Barnes, who was more of a scoring threat. replace Allan Saint-Maximin
Unai Emery replaced Aston Villa last season. But it ran incredible just to qualify for the Europa Conference League from November 1. Aston Villa has a goal difference of +14, but the expected goal difference is only +0.40.
From a tactical point of view, Aston Villa switched to a team playing from the back. The move they made in the summer seemed to suit Emery’s system perfectly. and signed a contract with Yuri Tielemans adds to the midfield and provides another creative option. They also mentioned a right winger, the biggest position they need. Aston Villa are out to buy Moussa Diaby, one of the best right wingers in the Bundesliga.
However, there are question marks as to how tactically Emery will deploy. Emery has never played a back three. But will have to play to protect his job. Torres never played on the right and Tyrone Mings never played at centre-back. But he is a very bad aerial defender and has trouble defending around the penalty area. which are two areas where Mings excelled.
So Aston Villa will have to play three at the back or sit one of his most important defenders in the opening.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa.
Betting selection and prediction
Emery is going to sit Torres or Mings or play three at the back and change his system against the Premier League’s most pressured team.
Neither situation is ideal.
Newcastle were a top five team in both the PPDA and High Turnovers last year. Which is what Emery demands of his team.
Newcastle have +1.46 xGD per 90 minutes and lost just two of their games last season at St James’ Park, while Aston Villa have performed poorly on the road with -0.42 xGD per 90 minutes.
In addition, the two main stars of Aston villa like jacob Ramsey and Alex Moreno will miss the match due to injury.
I have Newcastle forecast at -170 so I like their value at -125 (BetRivers)
choose: Newcastle -125
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