Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column you’ll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal in the opening field is to highlight my daily top edge for MLB moneylines and totals. Share my favorite bets. and provides betting records and analysis. Especially when I respond to open and overnight while using my baseball betting style.
I’ll be releasing a new version of the Opening Pitch every day between midnight and 3 AM Eastern Standard Time. After I entered overnight bets in the Action Network app and updated MLB predictions, hope you use it as your morning betting guide to stay ahead of the baseball markets.
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Expert Picks for Friday, August 11
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew Abbott vs Johan Oviedo
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
I have given Andrew Abbott has been a Fed challenger for some time. And the regression has hit him like a wave in his past two starts (9 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 8 BB, 8 K).
Even after those outbursts, Abbott still has a fairly significant delta between his expected ERA or xERA (3.73) and his actual mark (3.93), thanks to his BABIP . Probably significantly better Major League averages are .295 and 72%, respectively. All pitchers tend to regress to a mix of career and league averages in those categories.
Moreover The pitching model sees Abbott as an below-average starter (86 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 97 Pitching+), although he produces above-average results (16.4% K-BB% or strikeout minus walk rate). He has good control over the destructive ball – and tends to throw backwards and use it to call strikers early on. Still, his fast ball (.496 expected knockout percentage or xSLG vs. .456). true) and curveballs (.401 xSLG, .581 true), crushed, minesweeper (107 Stuff+, .209 xSLG) and variations (74 Stuff+, .202 xSLG) are silver-court.
The pitching model sees Johan Oviedo (93 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 97 Pitching+) as a similarly effective arm. Although Abbott’s fundamental indicators are slightly better than the league average, while Oviedo (4.38xERA, 11.1% K-BB%) is slightly lower.
There is a tendency for pitching models to underestimate (1) lefties and (2) position transitions. And I think that might be the case with Abbott, who I rate as the superior starting pitcher in this matchup.
However, even with the Reds’ offensive advantage in mind, I kept the Pirates slightly ahead of the game throughout the game. Bet Pittsburgh on the moneyline of +101 or better.
Additionally, I set about 9.5 total sprints; Bet Over 9 to -110
Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Xavier Assad vs Jose Berrios
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
I expect at least two bets on this series between the Cubs and the Blue Jays — two of the best defensive teams in baseball this season.
Toronto was first in Defensive Runs Saved (“DRS”) and the Cubs were fourth. Toronto has a better pitch (+33 to -3), while Chicago’s pitch is superior (+20 to +2).
Toronto is currently without Kevin Kiermaier (13 DRS), who has held fourth with 160 DRS since 2003 (behind Adrian Beltre and Andrelton Simmons at 200 and Yadier Molina at 184 and just slightly ahead of Nolan Arenado). ) is tied with Fernando Tatis (19) on the DRS leaderboard for all positions, and he has 12 center-field DRS in 321 innings, almost the same performance as Kiermaier in the half-innings (13 DRS in 714 innings).
They’ll have the best defensive pitcher — Jose Berrios — on the mound. Over the past three seasons, Berrios has 10 DRS, sixth-most among all pitchers. early his career But over the past four seasons The opposing base player was only 16 to 29 (55%) compared to him.
I don’t particularly like the Cubs’ opener Berrios (4.59 xERA) or Javier Assad (4.66 xERA). Still, I set this total around 8.5 considering the defensive quality of both sides. And it would bring it closer to 9 with league average defense.
Bet under 9 to -110 and look for Cubs rising at +143. or better (project +132)
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Tarik Skubal was one of the model’s favorite pitchers last season. And it looks like I’m betting on him early in 2023 that he seems to be improving after a serious injury.
Skubal’s fastball speed increased from 94.4 mph to 96 mph this season. Over 27 innings, he has scores of 97 Stuff+, 108 Location+ and 108 Pitching+ compared to scores 91, 101 and 99 last season.
And Skubal’s results improved too, his K-BB% increased from 17.8% to 27.7%, his xERA dropped from 3.34 to 2.30, and his xFIP dropped from 3.40 to 2.65.
Chris Sale will return to rotation in Boston — and pitch about four innings — after nearly two months out of work. in the past ten days He looked sharp in a couple of rehab visits in Worcester (total 6 1/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K). He should estimate his previous results (3.62 xERA, 92 Stuff+, 102. Location+, 101 Pitching+), which is between the levels of Skubal last season and this year.
Ultimately, given Sale’s superior results and dismissal, I wouldn’t have expected a significant difference between these two starting pitchers. and perhaps a slight nod to Skubal.
The Tigers are better at defensive lefties than righties – while the Red Sox, on the other hand – slightly increase their chances of matchups against the Southpaw starters.
And I think the two metaphors are pretty comparable. Detroit has had better results this season (4.22 vs. 4.37 xFIP; 14.9% to 13% K-BB%). Since the trade deadline Detroit has posted a superior Stuff+ (106 to 104), but the word worse order (99 to 94); And both teams have the bottom eight Bullpens per Pitching+ in that span.
Detroit bets go down to +125.Against my expected line at +116 and played their F5 (first five innings) moneyline to +110 (predicted at +102).
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Blake Snell and Rhine Nelson
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
During his six starts from June 11 to July 8 — where he recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of his six starts (63 in 36 innings) and posted a 0.75 ERA, Blake. Snell recorded 110 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 104 Pitching+ ratings) during the best form of his career.
In those five starts, Snell maintained a 1.73 ERA, but his xFIP increased from 1.43 to 4.47, his K-BB% dropped from 37.2% to 7.8%, and both Stuff (102 Stuff+) and command (95 Location+) did. Down, he danced on fire with an 88.4% rate in this latest period. In which Mr. Hyde’s side in his profile reappeared.
Ryne Nelson continues to be a puzzling arm with horrendous results (5.05 xERA, 5.21 xFIP, 8.4% K-BB%) but favors pitch modeling metrics (98 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 101 Pitching+). In addition to his fastball The remaining rate in Nelson’s arsenal is above average per Stuff+, but his most recent performance (5.59 ERA as of July 1, with more runs than strikeouts) has been a hit. and more home runs and walks combined than strikeouts) are not trending in a positive direction.
I didn’t factor in Nelson’s model predictor in my estimates – just his performance indicator – and I still show value to Arizona in this matchup.
Snake bet is +133Compared to my prediction line of +123
Zerillo’s Betting Friday August 11th
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (+150, 0.5u) at WynnBet (wager up to +133)
- Chicago Cubs/Toronto Blue Jays, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Detroit Tigers (+145, 0.5u) at WynnBet (wager up to +125)
- Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago White Sox, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -107)
- New York Mets (+164, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +159)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+110, 0.5u) at WynnBet (wager up to +101)
- Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
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